Is Cocoa's rally coming to an end?
Due to production losses in Ghana
, the cocoa future scored an impressive rally
, coming close to the september 2014 high
around 3390. RIght now, anyway, the rally seems to have lost much of its momentum
: volume doesn't favor anymore the rising price, last Friday a clear upthrust bar
appeared and a reliable volume indicator such as the Volume Zone Oscillator is currently showing a strong bearish divergence
. Last but not least, the commercials' stance as reported in COT, the ratio with inverse correlated bond future and the Put/Call ratio, they're all definitely bearish. Just a caveat
: rallies in cocoa are tradionally very resilient and the seasonality usually tops in august/september, not in july. So, let's trade it with caution...