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After a strong pullback to test the descending 34 days sma, we might expect a drop of coffee (march 2016 future) in the short term.
On the 4-hour chart we note a buying climax, followed by a shooting star visible in the 1-hour chart

coffee 4h buying limax
coffee 1h shooting star

Even the seasonality helps us: from now on the trend is bearish

coffee seasonality

So, we can expect a decrease of coffee price, in the short term, with a target set around 120$

coffee volume profile

Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

Who's afraid of the seasonal trend?

The orange juice future has a strong seasonal tendency to rise from late April until mid-May. It looks almost like a jump, an abrupt reversal at the end of a downtrend. The problem is that seasonal trends are to be considered with caution. Above all, one has to wonder if the current price and volume dynamics actually reflect the seasonality picture.

orange juice seasonal chart

In this case it seems the answer is yes. Not only the price behavior, but also the commercials' stance reported in COT, the ratio with dollar and the Put/Call ratio confirm the possibility of an OJ upward movement. Not to mention the VSA analysis, which detects a spectacular two bar reversal around the 20th of May and a recent succesful test of supply. A rise is in the cards, but never forget the market is the big cheater...


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