We are aware that to publish a new set-up on the Yen and USD/JPY when the markets are in full 'risk off' mode may sound at least incautious. Nevertheless we have to report what we see, it's our mission.
And what we see is a possible short opportunity on Mach 2016 Japanese Yen Futures
or, if you prefere, a long opportunity on USD/JPY
First we notice that the price has reached the top of a rising channel drawing a shooting star
that, according to the Volume Spread Analysis
, can also be defined as a pseudo upthrust
Volume Zone Oscillator
The very high VZO (Volume Zone Oscillator)
level and especially a clear a divergence between the price, which has risen from the previous high (January the 20th) to the last one (yesterday), and the indicator, which in the same period of time has fallen to a lower level, would suggest a possible short term reversal.
Commitment of Traders
If we look at the COT Index
, the commercials bearish stance
-combined with the fact that large speculators began selling- could confirm our guess.
Finally, looking at the seasonality
we see a strong bearish trend
until the first week of march that would also suggest a bearish reversal.
Of course, if you are a forex trader
, you can read this signal in the opposite direction for USD/JPY
, with the prospect of a rebound
Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.