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We are aware that to publish a new set-up on the Yen and USD/JPY when the markets are in full 'risk off' mode may sound at least incautious. Nevertheless we have to report what we see, it's our mission.
And what we see is a possible short opportunity on Mach 2016 Japanese Yen Futures or, if you prefere, a long opportunity on USD/JPY.


First we notice that the price has reached the top of a rising channel drawing a shooting star that, according to the Volume Spread Analysis, can also be defined as a pseudo upthrust.

yen channel shooting star pseudo upthrust trading for purpose

Volume Zone Oscillator

The very high VZO (Volume Zone Oscillator) level and especially a clear a divergence between the price, which has risen from the previous high (January the 20th) to the last one (yesterday), and the indicator, which in the same period of time has fallen to a lower level, would suggest a possible short term reversal.

yen vzo volume zone oscillator trading for purpose

Commitment of Traders

If we look at the COT Index, the commercials bearish stance -combined with the fact that large speculators began selling- could confirm our guess.

yen cot commitment of traders trading for purpose


Finally, looking at the seasonality we see a strong bearish trend until the first week of march that would also suggest a bearish reversal.

yen seasonality bearish trading for purpose

Of course, if you are a forex trader, you can read this signal in the opposite direction for USD/JPY, with the prospect of a rebound.
Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

Some setups lead us to believe that, in the medium term, the march 2016 sugar future may point south decidedly.

Volume Spread Analysis: sugar upthrust

First of all, looking at patterns (according to the Volume Spread Analysis), we can see that the last candle is an uphtrust (shooting star candle) with possible bearish implications.

sugar shooting star upthrust trading for purpose

Commitment of traders

If we look at the COT Index, the commercials bearish stance could confirm our guess.

The commercials have started to buy and, on the contrary, small and large speculators began selling: is a strong bearish setup.

sugar cot trading for purpose

Signs of market manipulation

Looking at the chart, we also notice the top has got a marked and well-know rounded shape.

As we know, this is a kind of top that many analysts consider typical of the 'market makers' activity: in this case, the continued uncertainty and ups and downs in the sugar market would have allowed the 'strong hands' to distribute high quantity of contracts without revealing too obviously their goals.

sugar rounded top trading for purpose

We noticed at least three strong reasons to be bearish, but remember that, as Lucretius said: "In this world nothing is certain except for a dark force that makes everything uncertain". Moreover, remember also that this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

Several setups suggest that Cocoa March 2016 Futures might have reached a bottom and could be ready to reverse.

cocoa chart january 2016 trading for purpose

Volume Spread Analysis

A stopping volume is after a selling climax: according to the Volume Spread Analysis, we are facing signs of a reversal. In addition we could say that yesterday candle is a 'no supply' with possible bullish implications.

cocoa vsa selling climax stopping volume no supply trading for purpose

Commitment of Traders

If we look at the COT Index, the commercials bullish stance could confirm our guess.

cocoa cot bullish trading for purpose

The price could even decrease slightly, but the setups we have lead us to expect a bullish trend.
«Well, nobody's perfect». Therefore, remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

Is it inversion time for the january 2016 heating oil future?

Looking at patterns (according to the volume spread analysis), we can see a selling climax, followed by a stopping volume and, a few days later, by a no supply bar. A typical bullish sequence...

heating oil futures patterns

If we look at the COT Index, the commercials bullish stance could confirm our guess.

heating oil futures commitment of traders

Also looking at the seasonality we see a bullish trend (now and for the beginning of 2016) that would suggest a reversal.

heating oil futures seasonality

Heating oil futures also show a very high volatility: the implied volatility is at 94.18%, the historical at 33.87%. It seems heating oil is reaching a bottom level, and could be ready to take off.
Remember: this is not a trade solicitation and, if you decide to trade, you do it at your own responsibility.

Sugar rallied powerfully since the end of September, but right now is showing signs of fatigue. It found a strong resistance at the market profile Point of Control and we think the time is ripe for a nice retracement. The volume has declined day after day during the whole rally and last week the march 2016 sugar contract wasn't able to break through the 14.5 level.

sugar daily chart

You might object that sugar could simply be pausing to re-accumulate before the next upside leg. We don't think so, mainly because the last COT reports show a violent rush to sell this contract by the side of commercials. Why should the sell so violently if they don't think sugar is already overpriced?

february 2016 sugar cot chart

Also the seasonal chart reinforce our vision: sugar is currently followinng its seasonal trend and, as you can observe in the following chart, it's got the tendency to decline from the beginning of october till the beginning of december. Maybe it could still produce a last spike higher, but we think we'll soon witness a nice deep retracement. Remember this is not a trade solicitation and if you decide to trade you do it at your own responsibility.  

sugar seasonality

We all know there is no shortage of wheat in the world. Not at all, stocks are huge and the crop is growing fine. So how come the Commercials assumed an extremely bullish stance, options traders are equally bullish (put/call ratio is about 0.5), and the fall in prices not only stopped on a long-term support around 460 and is even giving the impression of wanting to go up?

wheat weekly chart 12.05.20154

Perhaps the reason is the market has already discounted all the negative info and those who work with the grain at industrial and commercial level begin to think that the price cannot get any lower. Also the market makers seem to think so, since on April 28 they scored a textbook 'stopping volume' bar, five days after they went to succesfully retest the low and are now trying to prompt a small rally. Seasonality trend isn't ready yet, for usually wheat marks a a low around the end of June, but this year things could be different ...

wheat daily chart 12.5.2015

The oats future marked a top in march 2014, and then experienced a long decline that almost halved the price (from 505$ to 262$). Anyway, being the 260$ level a very old support dating back to may 2012, the decline has currently stopped and oats possibly began an interesting accumulation phase. 

1. Back to 2012 support 

Oats future weekly chart

2. Bottoming out through an evident accumulation process

The accumulation process is easily deciphered on the daily chart: in the beginning of february we noticed a powerful selling climax action with a strong stopping volume candle that halted the decline. The supply area around 267$ was retested at the end of february and then again around march 18th. 

oats future daily chart

3. Oats POC

Having depicted an almost perfect triple bottom, oats future seems ready to start rising towards the point of control around 345$.

oats future market profile

4. Cot confirmation

The possibility of a reversal is confirmed by the Commitment of Traders that reveals an extremely bullish stance on the part of commercials, while the large speculators (funds) appear to have stopped selling and started a new accumulation campaign.

oats future commitment of traders

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